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HP-47 vs LAUTP — Suomen Cup 2018

HP-47
HP-47
FT
1 – 5
LAUTP
LAUTP
3/30/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundHeinolan UP TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

HP-4732%
×Draw20%
LAUTP48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

HP-47
1.83
LAUTP
2.25

LAUTP creates 23% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

HP-47
2.67
LAUTP
2.50

allows per match

HP-47
2.00
LAUTP
1.00

finishing

HP-47+0.00on par
LAUTP+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

HP-47 ↓

LAUTP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

HP-47 or draw
52%
HP-47 or LAUTP
80%
Draw or LAUTP
68%

Winning margin

HP-47 wins by 2+
16%
LAUTP wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

HP-47 1+ goals
84%
HP-47 2+ goals
54%
HP-47 3+ goals
28%
LAUTP 1+ goals
89%
LAUTP 2+ goals
65%
LAUTP 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

HP-47 (draw refunded)
40%
LAUTP (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

HP-47 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

LAUTP away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

HP-47 attack 2.67 + LAUTP defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

LAUTP attack 2.50 + HP-47 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

HP-47 scores more
32%
level
20%
LAUTP scores more
48%

LAUTP at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "LAUTP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: HP-47 1–5 LAUTP

LAUTP beat HP-47 5-1 in Suomen Cup on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Heinolan UP TN in Heinola.