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Hoyvík vs MB — Løgmanssteypid 2019

Hoyvík
Hoyvík
FT
8 – 0
HT: 7 – 0
MB
MB
4/2/2022LøgmanssteypidLøgmanssteypid · Preliminary RoundHoyvíksvøllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Hoyvík91%
×Draw5%
MB3%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoyvík
6.08
MB
1.38

Hoyvík creates 341% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Hoyvík
2.50
MB
0.00

allows per match

Hoyvík
2.75
MB
9.67

finishing

Hoyvík+0.00on par
MB+0.00on par

Total goals

96%Over
  • Over96
  • Under4

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoyvík ↓

MB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–11%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–02%
2–12%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–06%
4–18%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (8%) · grid covers 46% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
96%4%3.5
90%10%4.5
77%23%

Double chance

Hoyvík or draw
97%
Hoyvík or MB
95%
Draw or MB
9%

Winning margin

Hoyvík wins by 2+
81%
MB wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Hoyvík 1+ goals
100%
Hoyvík 2+ goals
97%
Hoyvík 3+ goals
90%
MB 1+ goals
75%
MB 2+ goals
40%
MB 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Hoyvík (draw refunded)
96%
MB (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoyvík at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

MB away — creates 0.00, concedes 9.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoyvík attack 2.50 + MB defence 9.67 → ÷2 → 6.08

MB attack 0.00 + Hoyvík defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 91%?"

Hoyvík scores more
91%
level
5%
MB scores more
3%

Hoyvík at 91% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 91% does not mean "Hoyvík will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hoyvík vs MB

Hoyvík beat MB 8-0 in Løgmanssteypid on April 2, 2022.

The match was played at Hoyvíksvøllur in Hoyvík.