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Hoyvík vs B71 — 1. Deild 2019

Hoyvík
Hoyvík
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
B71
B71
P. Holm 18'
S. u. Dimun 60'
8/11/20241. Deild1. Deild · Round 18Hoyvíksvøllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Hoyvík32%
×Draw21%
B7147%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hoyvík
1.69
B71
2.06

B71 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 101 away

creates per match

Hoyvík
1.41
B71
1.67

allows per match

Hoyvík
2.45
B71
1.96

finishing

Hoyvík+0.00on par
B71+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hoyvík ↓

B71 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Hoyvík or draw
53%
Hoyvík or B71
79%
Draw or B71
68%

Winning margin

Hoyvík wins by 2+
16%
B71 wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Hoyvík 1+ goals
82%
Hoyvík 2+ goals
50%
Hoyvík 3+ goals
24%
B71 1+ goals
87%
B71 2+ goals
61%
B71 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Hoyvík (draw refunded)
41%
B71 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hoyvík at home — creates 1.41, concedes 2.45 · 49 matches

B71 away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.96 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hoyvík attack 1.41 + B71 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.69

B71 attack 1.67 + Hoyvík defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Hoyvík scores more
32%
level
21%
B71 scores more
47%

B71 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "B71 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
P. Holm
60'
S. u. Dimun

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: Hoyvík 1–1 B71

Hoyvík and B71 drew 1-1 in 1. Deild on August 11, 2024.

Goals: P. Holm (18'), S. u. Dimun (60').

The match was played at Hoyvíksvøllur in Hoyvík.