Lillestrom 1–2 Stabaek: Result & Stats

Lillestrom

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Stabaek

J. Kolstad 88'

A. Mehmeti 89'

M. Njie 37'

7/10/2016

Eliteserien · Round 15Åråsen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Lillestrom50%

×Draw24%

Stabaek27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LillestromExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.20

Lillestrom

1.73

Stabaek

1.20

Lillestrom creates 44% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 59 away

1.54

creates per match

1.10

1.29

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Lillestrom

1.54

Stabaek

1.10

allows per match

Lillestrom

1.29

Stabaek

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lillestrom+0.00on par

Stabaek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lillestrom ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Lillestrom or draw

73%

Lillestrom or Stabaek

76%

Draw or Stabaek

50%

Winning margin

Lillestrom wins by 2+

27%

Stabaek wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Lillestrom 1+ goals

82%

Lillestrom 2+ goals

52%

Lillestrom 3+ goals

25%

Stabaek 1+ goals

70%

Stabaek 2+ goals

34%

Stabaek 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lillestrom (draw refunded)

65%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lillestrom at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.29 · 82 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.92 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lillestrom attack 1.54 + Stabaek defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.73

Stabaek attack 1.10 + Lillestrom defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Lillestrom scores more

50%

level

24%

Stabaek scores more

27%

Lillestrom at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Lillestrom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

C. Grossman

Stabaek · M

7.8

Match Events

37'

M. Njie↳ C. Grossman

57'

Frode Kippe

61'

Birger Meling

73'

E. Brenden← E. Knudtzon

74'

A. Mehmeti← O. Omoijuanfo

81'

J. Kolstad← B. Innocent

83'

D. Granli← G. Gorozia

88'

J. Kolstad↳ H. Skogseid

89'

A. Mehmeti

90+2'

A. Hanche-Olsen← E. Asante

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LillestromStabaek

Overview

47%Possession53%

11Total Shots12

3Corners2

9Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots12

4On Target5

2Off Target4

5Blocked3

7Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

446Total Passes479

326Accurate Passes372

73%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls8

1Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

8Offsides3