Shonan Bellmare 0–1 FC Tokyo: Result & Stats

Shonan Bellmare

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Tokyo

Y. Mutō 64'

4/12/2015

J1 League · 1st Stage - 5Shonan BMW Stadium Hiratsuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Shonan Bellmare34%

×Draw25%

FC Tokyo41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Shonan BellmareExpected goals in this matchFC Tokyo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.46

Shonan Bellmare

1.31

FC Tokyo

1.46

FC Tokyo creates 11% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 22 away

1.20

creates per match

1.48

1.45

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Shonan Bellmare

1.20

FC Tokyo

1.48

allows per match

Shonan Bellmare

1.45

FC Tokyo

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

-0.16scores less than expected

finishing

Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par

FC Tokyo-0.16scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shonan Bellmare ↓

FC Tokyo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Shonan Bellmare or draw

59%

Shonan Bellmare or FC Tokyo

75%

Draw or FC Tokyo

66%

Winning margin

Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+

15%

FC Tokyo wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals

73%

Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals

38%

Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals

14%

FC Tokyo 1+ goals

77%

FC Tokyo 2+ goals

43%

FC Tokyo 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)

45%

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shonan Bellmare at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

FC Tokyo away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.43 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.20 + FC Tokyo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

FC Tokyo attack 1.48 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Shonan Bellmare scores more

34%

level

25%

FC Tokyo scores more

41%

FC Tokyo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

Y. Mutō

65'

Bruno Correa← S. Otsuki

71'

Y. Otake← S. Fujita

71'

H. Takahashi← H. Kawano

80'

M. Kani← Alison

90+3'

R. Maeda← N. Ishikawa

Shonan

FC

1

30

6

2

3

18

▼

Ishikawa

10

Kajiyama

22

Hanyu

17

▼

Kawano

7

Yonemoto

14

⚽

1

4

3

17

10

14

▼

6

2

23

19

▼

Otsuki

18

▼

Alison

65'▲Bruno Correa←▼S. Otsuki

71'▲Y. Otake←▼S. Fujita

80'▲M. Kani←▼Alison

Shonan Bellmare substitutes

9Correa7Otake26Kani5Kobayashi15Kim20Tsuboi21Kajikawa

71'▲H. Takahashi←▼H. Kawano

90+3'▲R. Maeda←▼N. Ishikawa

FC Tokyo substitutes

4Takahashi20Maeda5Maruyama8Mita13Enamoto29Yoshimoto39Nakajima