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FC Tokyo vs Shonan Bellmare — J1 League 2018

FC Tokyo
FC Tokyo
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Shonan Bellmare
Shonan Bellmare
11/3/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 35Ajinomoto Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

FC Tokyo46%
×Draw25%
Shonan Bellmare29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Tokyo
1.52
Shonan Bellmare
1.15

FC Tokyo creates 32% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 142 away

creates per match

FC Tokyo
1.48
Shonan Bellmare
1.12

allows per match

FC Tokyo
1.17
Shonan Bellmare
1.55

finishing

FC Tokyo+0.00on par
Shonan Bellmare+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Tokyo ↓

Shonan Bellmare →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

FC Tokyo or draw
71%
FC Tokyo or Shonan Bellmare
75%
Draw or Shonan Bellmare
54%

Winning margin

FC Tokyo wins by 2+
23%
Shonan Bellmare wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FC Tokyo 1+ goals
78%
FC Tokyo 2+ goals
45%
FC Tokyo 3+ goals
20%
Shonan Bellmare 1+ goals
68%
Shonan Bellmare 2+ goals
32%
Shonan Bellmare 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FC Tokyo (draw refunded)
61%
Shonan Bellmare (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Tokyo at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.17 · 149 matches

Shonan Bellmare away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.55 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Tokyo attack 1.48 + Shonan Bellmare defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shonan Bellmare attack 1.12 + FC Tokyo defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FC Tokyo scores more
46%
level
25%
Shonan Bellmare scores more
29%

FC Tokyo at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FC Tokyo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

J1 League: FC Tokyo 0–2 Shonan Bellmare

Shonan Bellmare beat FC Tokyo 2-0 in J1 League on November 3, 2024.

The match was played at Ajinomoto Stadium in Chōfu.