Houston Dynamo 2–1 Rio Grande Valley

Houston Dynamo

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rio Grande Valley

4/20/2022

US Open Cup · 3rd RoundPNC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Houston Dynamo63%

×Draw20%

Rio Grande Valley17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Houston DynamoExpected goals in this matchRio Grande Valley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.07

Houston Dynamo

2.20

Rio Grande Valley

1.07

Houston Dynamo creates 106% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 3 away

2.73

creates per match

1.33

0.82

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Houston Dynamo

2.73

Rio Grande Valley

1.33

allows per match

Houston Dynamo

0.82

Rio Grande Valley

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Houston Dynamo+0.00on par

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston Dynamo ↓

Rio Grande Valley →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Houston Dynamo or draw

83%

Houston Dynamo or Rio Grande Valley

80%

Draw or Rio Grande Valley

37%

Winning margin

Houston Dynamo wins by 2+

40%

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+

Team goals

Houston Dynamo 1+ goals

89%

Houston Dynamo 2+ goals

64%

Houston Dynamo 3+ goals

37%

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals

66%

Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals

29%

Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Houston Dynamo (draw refunded)

78%

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Houston Dynamo at home — creates 2.73, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Houston Dynamo attack 2.73 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.20

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.33 + Houston Dynamo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Houston Dynamo scores more

63%

level

20%

Rio Grande Valley scores more

17%

Houston Dynamo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Houston Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Houston Dynamo vs Rio Grande Valley

Houston Dynamo beat Rio Grande Valley 2-1 in US Open Cup on April 20, 2022.

The match was played at PNC Stadium in Houston, Texas.

Houston Dynamo vs Rio Grande Valley — US Open Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Houston Dynamo vs Rio Grande Valley