Houston Dynamo vs New England Revolution — Major League Soccer 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 13+ matches
Houston Dynamo51%
New England Revolution26%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Houston Dynamo creates 47% more chances
Season form · 21 home / 13 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over60
- Under40
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Houston Dynamo ↓
Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Houston Dynamo at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.27 · 21 matches
New England Revolution away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.30 · 13 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Houston Dynamo attack 1.39 + New England Revolution defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.84
New England Revolution attack 1.24 + Houston Dynamo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Houston Dynamo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Houston Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
New York Red Bulls
Atlanta United FC
Sporting Kansas City
Seattle Sounders
Los Angeles FC
FC Dallas
New York City FC
Portland Timbers
DC United
Columbus Crew
Philadelphia Union
Real Salt Lake
Los Angeles Galaxy
Vancouver WhitecapsNew England RevolutionHouston Dynamo
Toronto FC
Chicago Fire
Colorado Rapids
Orlando City SC
San Jose EarthquakesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Houston Dynamo host New England Revolution on Wednesday, 14 September 2022 at 00:30. The match is part of the Major League Soccer 2018/2019 season.
Major League Soccer: Houston Dynamo 3–1 New England Revolution
Houston Dynamo beat New England Revolution 3-1 in Major League Soccer on September 14, 2022.
The match was played at PNC Stadium in Houston, Texas.