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Houston Dynamo vs CF Montreal — Major League Soccer 2018

Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
CF Montreal
CF Montreal
8/14/2022Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 35PNC Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Houston Dynamo43%
×Draw25%
CF Montreal32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Houston Dynamo
1.57
CF Montreal
1.33

Houston Dynamo creates 18% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 14 away

creates per match

Houston Dynamo
1.39
CF Montreal
1.39

allows per match

Houston Dynamo
1.27
CF Montreal
1.76

finishing

Houston Dynamo-0.10scores less
CF Montreal+0.18scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston Dynamo ↓

CF Montreal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Houston Dynamo or draw
68%
Houston Dynamo or CF Montreal
75%
Draw or CF Montreal
57%

Winning margin

Houston Dynamo wins by 2+
22%
CF Montreal wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Houston Dynamo 1+ goals
79%
Houston Dynamo 2+ goals
46%
Houston Dynamo 3+ goals
21%
CF Montreal 1+ goals
74%
CF Montreal 2+ goals
38%
CF Montreal 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Houston Dynamo (draw refunded)
57%
CF Montreal (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Houston Dynamo at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.27 · 21 matches

CF Montreal away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.76 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Houston Dynamo attack 1.39 + CF Montreal defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.57

CF Montreal attack 1.39 + Houston Dynamo defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Houston Dynamo scores more
43%
level
25%
CF Montreal scores more
32%

Houston Dynamo at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Houston Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Houston Dynamo vs CF Montreal

CF Montreal beat Houston Dynamo 3-2 in Major League Soccer on August 14, 2022.

The match was played at PNC Stadium in Houston, Texas.