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Houston Dynamo vs America de Cali — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs·2026
Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
America de Cali
America de Cali
Date
Jul 16, 2026, 12:30 AM
Tournament
Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Houston Dynamo41%
×Draw25%
America de Cali35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Houston Dynamo
1.53
America de Cali
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 3 away

creates per match

Houston Dynamo
2.40
America de Cali
1.00

allows per match

Houston Dynamo
1.80
America de Cali
0.67

finishing

Houston Dynamo+0.00on par
America de Cali+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston Dynamo ↓

America de Cali →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Houston Dynamo or draw
65%
Houston Dynamo or America de Cali
75%
Draw or America de Cali
59%

Winning margin

Houston Dynamo wins by 2+
20%
America de Cali wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Houston Dynamo 1+ goals
78%
Houston Dynamo 2+ goals
45%
Houston Dynamo 3+ goals
20%
America de Cali 1+ goals
75%
America de Cali 2+ goals
41%
America de Cali 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Houston Dynamo (draw refunded)
54%
America de Cali (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Houston Dynamo at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

America de Cali away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Houston Dynamo attack 2.40 + America de Cali defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.53

America de Cali attack 1.00 + Houston Dynamo defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Houston Dynamo scores more
41%
level
25%
America de Cali scores more
35%

Houston Dynamo at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Houston Dynamo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Houston Dynamo vs America de Cali

Houston Dynamo beat America de Cali 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 16, 2026.