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Houston Dynamo FC II vs Los Angeles FC II — MLS Next Pro 2026

Houston Dynamo FC II
Houston Dynamo FC II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Los Angeles FC II
Los Angeles FC II
4/6/2025MLS Next ProMLS Next Pro · Round 5SaberCats Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Houston Dynamo FC II58%
×Draw20%
Los Angeles FC II22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Houston Dynamo FC II
2.18
Los Angeles FC II
1.26

Houston Dynamo FC II creates 73% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 36 away

creates per match

Houston Dynamo FC II
2.00
Los Angeles FC II
1.42

allows per match

Houston Dynamo FC II
1.10
Los Angeles FC II
2.36

finishing

Houston Dynamo FC II+0.00on par
Los Angeles FC II+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston Dynamo FC II ↓

Los Angeles FC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Houston Dynamo FC II or draw
78%
Houston Dynamo FC II or Los Angeles FC II
80%
Draw or Los Angeles FC II
42%

Winning margin

Houston Dynamo FC II wins by 2+
36%
Los Angeles FC II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Houston Dynamo FC II 1+ goals
89%
Houston Dynamo FC II 2+ goals
64%
Houston Dynamo FC II 3+ goals
37%
Los Angeles FC II 1+ goals
72%
Los Angeles FC II 2+ goals
36%
Los Angeles FC II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Houston Dynamo FC II (draw refunded)
73%
Los Angeles FC II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Houston Dynamo FC II at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

Los Angeles FC II away — creates 1.42, concedes 2.36 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Houston Dynamo FC II attack 2.00 + Los Angeles FC II defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 2.18

Los Angeles FC II attack 1.42 + Houston Dynamo FC II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Houston Dynamo FC II scores more
58%
level
20%
Los Angeles FC II scores more
22%

Houston Dynamo FC II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Houston Dynamo FC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

MLS Next Pro: Houston Dynamo FC II 1–0 Los Angeles FC II

Houston Dynamo FC II beat Los Angeles FC II 1-0 in MLS Next Pro on April 6, 2025.

The match was played at SaberCats Stadium.