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Houston Dash W vs Seattle Reign FC W — NWSL Women 2026

Houston Dash W
Houston Dash W
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Seattle Reign FC W
Seattle Reign FC W
6/18/2023NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 8Shell Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Houston Dash W38%
×Draw27%
Seattle Reign FC W35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Houston Dash W
1.26
Seattle Reign FC W
1.20

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 82 home / 82 away

creates per match

Houston Dash W
1.17
Seattle Reign FC W
1.12

allows per match

Houston Dash W
1.27
Seattle Reign FC W
1.35

finishing

Houston Dash W+0.00on par
Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston Dash W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Houston Dash W or draw
65%
Houston Dash W or Seattle Reign FC W
73%
Draw or Seattle Reign FC W
62%

Winning margin

Houston Dash W wins by 2+
17%
Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Houston Dash W 1+ goals
72%
Houston Dash W 2+ goals
36%
Houston Dash W 3+ goals
13%
Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals
70%
Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals
34%
Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Houston Dash W (draw refunded)
52%
Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Houston Dash W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.35 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Houston Dash W attack 1.17 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.26

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.12 + Houston Dash W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Houston Dash W scores more
38%
level
27%
Seattle Reign FC W scores more
35%

Houston Dash W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Houston Dash W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NWSL Women: Houston Dash W 0–0 Seattle Reign FC W

Houston Dash W and Seattle Reign FC W drew 0-0 in NWSL Women on June 18, 2023.

The match was played at Shell Energy Stadium in Houston, Texas.