Houston Dash W 0–0 San Diego Wave W: Result & Stats

Houston Dash W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Diego Wave W

6/22/2024

NWSL Women · Round 11Shell Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Houston Dash W33%

×Draw28%

San Diego Wave W40%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Houston Dash WExpected goals in this matchSan Diego Wave W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

1.27

Houston Dash W

1.12

San Diego Wave W

1.27

San Diego Wave W creates 13% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 57 away

1.17

creates per match

1.28

1.27

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Houston Dash W

1.17

San Diego Wave W

1.28

allows per match

Houston Dash W

1.27

San Diego Wave W

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Houston Dash W+0.00on par

San Diego Wave W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston Dash W ↓

San Diego Wave W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Houston Dash W or draw

60%

Houston Dash W or San Diego Wave W

72%

Draw or San Diego Wave W

67%

Winning margin

Houston Dash W wins by 2+

13%

San Diego Wave W wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Houston Dash W 1+ goals

67%

Houston Dash W 2+ goals

31%

Houston Dash W 3+ goals

10%

San Diego Wave W 1+ goals

72%

San Diego Wave W 2+ goals

36%

San Diego Wave W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Houston Dash W (draw refunded)

45%

San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Houston Dash W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

San Diego Wave W away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Houston Dash W attack 1.17 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.12

San Diego Wave W attack 1.28 + Houston Dash W defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Houston Dash W scores more

33%

level

28%

San Diego Wave W scores more

40%

San Diego Wave W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "San Diego Wave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff