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Houston Dash W vs Bay FC W — NWSL Women 2025

Houston Dash W
Houston Dash W
Preview
00:00
Bay FC W
Bay FC W
7/25/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageShell Energy Stadium
39%
Houston Dash W
model favours
39%26%35%

Both teams scored in 4 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
55%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Houston Dash W39%
×Draw26%
Bay FC W35%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Houston Dash W
1.38
Bay FC W
1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 24 home / 24 away

creates per match

Houston Dash W
1.29
Bay FC W
1.08

allows per match

Houston Dash W
1.54
Bay FC W
1.46

finishing

Houston Dash W+0.00on par
Bay FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston Dash W ↓

Bay FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Houston Dash W or draw
65%
Houston Dash W or Bay FC W
74%
Draw or Bay FC W
61%

Winning margin

Houston Dash W wins by 2+
18%
Bay FC W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Houston Dash W 1+ goals
75%
Houston Dash W 2+ goals
40%
Houston Dash W 3+ goals
16%
Bay FC W 1+ goals
73%
Bay FC W 2+ goals
38%
Bay FC W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Houston Dash W (draw refunded)
52%
Bay FC W (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Houston Dash W at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.54 · 24 matches

Bay FC W away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Houston Dash W attack 1.29 + Bay FC W defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.38

Bay FC W attack 1.08 + Houston Dash W defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Houston Dash W scores more
39%
level
26%
Bay FC W scores more
35%

Houston Dash W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Houston Dash W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Bay FC W fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 2.2 expected)
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 4.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Houston Dash W
Balanced
Bay FC W
Attack-heavy
49%Possession51%
80%Pass accuracy78%
8.4ShotsBiggest gap12.7
—xG2.18
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Houston Dash WBay FC W

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

1
Houston Dash W
2
Draws
1
Bay FC W
Avg goals: 4.5BTTS: 100%
2–22–22–33–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
DLLWD
W
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Houston Dash W vs Bay FC W — Match Preview

Houston Dash W face Bay FC W on July 25, 2026 in this NWSL Women fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Houston Dash W host Bay FC W at Shell Energy Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.