Houston Dash W 2–3 Bay FC W: Result & Stats

Houston Dash W

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Bay FC W

A. Patterson 46'

B. Olivieri 14'

R. Kundananji 54', 21'

P. Nielsen 10' (OG)

11/3/2024

NWSL Women · Round 19Shell Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Houston Dash W40%

×Draw25%

Bay FC W34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Houston Dash WExpected goals in this matchBay FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.32

Houston Dash W

1.46

Bay FC W

1.32

Houston Dash W creates 11% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 29 away

1.24

creates per match

1.17

1.48

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Houston Dash W

1.24

Bay FC W

1.17

allows per match

Houston Dash W

1.48

Bay FC W

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Houston Dash W+0.00on par

Bay FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Houston Dash W ↓

Bay FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Houston Dash W or draw

66%

Houston Dash W or Bay FC W

75%

Draw or Bay FC W

60%

Winning margin

Houston Dash W wins by 2+

19%

Bay FC W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Houston Dash W 1+ goals

77%

Houston Dash W 2+ goals

43%

Houston Dash W 3+ goals

18%

Bay FC W 1+ goals

73%

Bay FC W 2+ goals

38%

Bay FC W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Houston Dash W (draw refunded)

54%

Bay FC W (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Houston Dash W at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.48 · 25 matches

Bay FC W away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Houston Dash W attack 1.24 + Bay FC W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.46

Bay FC W attack 1.17 + Houston Dash W defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Houston Dash W scores more

40%

level

25%

Bay FC W scores more

34%

Houston Dash W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Houston Dash W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

R. Kundananji

Bay FC W · M

9.7

Match Events

10'

P. NielsenOwn goal

14'

B. Olivieri↳ S. Puntigam

21'

R. Kundananji↳ D. Bailey

39'

Yūki Nagasato

45+1'

Paige Nielsen

46'

S. King← A. Malonson

46'

P. Hocking← A. Oshoala

46'

A. Patterson↳ Y. Nagasato

54'

R. Kundananji↳ S. King

61'

Racheal Kundananji

68'

B. Briede← S. Puntigam

68'

Andressa Alves← R. Gareis

79'

M. Alozie← Y. Nagasato

85'

M. Moreau← S. King

88'

Z. Matthews← S. Schmidt

90+6'

J. Anderson← D. Bailey

90+8'

C. Conti← R. Kundananji

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HoustonBay

Overview

50%Possession50%

10Total Shots18

3Corners7

11Fouls17

Shots

10Total Shots18

5On Target7

2Off Target6

3Blocked5

5Inside Box12

5Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

392Total Passes388

303Accurate Passes311

77%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls17

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides3