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Hougang United vs Tanjong Pagar — Premier League 2019

Hougang United
Hougang United
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Tanjong Pagar
Tanjong Pagar
2/23/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Jalan Besar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Hougang United52%
×Draw20%
Tanjong Pagar29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hougang United
2.44
Tanjong Pagar
1.81

Hougang United creates 35% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 70 away

creates per match

Hougang United
1.98
Tanjong Pagar
1.47

allows per match

Hougang United
2.14
Tanjong Pagar
2.89

finishing

Hougang United+0.00on par
Tanjong Pagar+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hougang United ↓

Tanjong Pagar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Hougang United or draw
71%
Hougang United or Tanjong Pagar
80%
Draw or Tanjong Pagar
48%

Winning margin

Hougang United wins by 2+
32%
Tanjong Pagar wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hougang United 1+ goals
91%
Hougang United 2+ goals
70%
Hougang United 3+ goals
43%
Tanjong Pagar 1+ goals
84%
Tanjong Pagar 2+ goals
54%
Tanjong Pagar 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Hougang United (draw refunded)
64%
Tanjong Pagar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hougang United at home — creates 1.98, concedes 2.14 · 81 matches

Tanjong Pagar away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.89 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hougang United attack 1.98 + Tanjong Pagar defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.44

Tanjong Pagar attack 1.47 + Hougang United defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hougang United scores more
52%
level
20%
Tanjong Pagar scores more
29%

Hougang United at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Hougang United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Hougang United 3–0 Tanjong Pagar

Hougang United beat Tanjong Pagar 3-0 in Premier League on February 23, 2026.

The match was played at Jalan Besar Stadium in Singapore.