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Höttur / Huginn vs Vídir — 2. Deild 2026

Höttur / Huginn
Höttur / Huginn
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Vídir
Vídir
B. Helgason 2'
M. Mani Jonsson 85'
C. Martins 57'
A. Alexandrenne 11'
5/24/20252. Deild2. Deild · Round 4Fellavöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Höttur / Huginn41%
×Draw22%
Vídir36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Höttur / Huginn
1.81
Vídir
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

creates per match

Höttur / Huginn
1.09
Vídir
1.35

allows per match

Höttur / Huginn
2.00
Vídir
2.53

finishing

Höttur / Huginn+0.00on par
Vídir+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Höttur / Huginn ↓

Vídir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Höttur / Huginn or draw
64%
Höttur / Huginn or Vídir
78%
Draw or Vídir
59%

Winning margin

Höttur / Huginn wins by 2+
22%
Vídir wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Höttur / Huginn 1+ goals
84%
Höttur / Huginn 2+ goals
54%
Höttur / Huginn 3+ goals
27%
Vídir 1+ goals
81%
Vídir 2+ goals
50%
Vídir 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Höttur / Huginn (draw refunded)
53%
Vídir (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Höttur / Huginn at home — creates 1.09, concedes 2.00 · 11 matches

Vídir away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Höttur / Huginn attack 1.09 + Vídir defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.81

Vídir attack 1.35 + Höttur / Huginn defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Höttur / Huginn scores more
41%
level
22%
Vídir scores more
36%

Höttur / Huginn at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Höttur / Huginn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'
B. Helgason
11'
A. Alexandrenne
57'
C. Martins
85'
M. Mani Jonsson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Höttur / Huginn vs Vídir

Vídir beat Höttur / Huginn 3-1 in 2. Deild on May 24, 2025.

Goals: B. Helgason (2'), A. Alexandrenne (11'), C. Martins (57'), M. Mani Jonsson (85').

The match was played at Fellavöllur in Fellabær.