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Hottin vs Efrin — Premier League 2019

Hottin
Hottin
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Efrin
Efrin
3/4/2022Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Al Basil Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Hottin62%
×Draw22%
Efrin17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hottin
1.94
Efrin
0.90

Hottin creates 116% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 13 away

creates per match

Hottin
1.33
Efrin
0.77

allows per match

Hottin
1.02
Efrin
2.54

finishing

Hottin+0.00on par
Efrin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hottin ↓

Efrin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hottin or draw
83%
Hottin or Efrin
78%
Draw or Efrin
38%

Winning margin

Hottin wins by 2+
37%
Efrin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Hottin 1+ goals
86%
Hottin 2+ goals
58%
Hottin 3+ goals
30%
Efrin 1+ goals
59%
Efrin 2+ goals
23%
Efrin 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Hottin (draw refunded)
78%
Efrin (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hottin at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.02 · 83 matches

Efrin away — creates 0.77, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hottin attack 1.33 + Efrin defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.94

Efrin attack 0.77 + Hottin defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Hottin scores more
62%
level
22%
Efrin scores more
17%

Hottin at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Hottin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hottin vs Efrin

Hottin beat Efrin 1-0 in Premier League on March 4, 2022.

The match was played at Al Basil Stadium in Latakia.