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Horta vs Sants — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Horta
Horta
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sants
Sants
12/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 15Estade Feliu i Codina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Horta47%
×Draw25%
Sants28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horta
1.59
Sants
1.18

Horta creates 35% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 45 away

creates per match

Horta
1.46
Sants
0.82

allows per match

Horta
1.54
Sants
1.73

finishing

Horta+0.00on par
Sants+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horta ↓

Sants →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Horta or draw
72%
Horta or Sants
75%
Draw or Sants
53%

Winning margin

Horta wins by 2+
24%
Sants wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Horta 1+ goals
80%
Horta 2+ goals
47%
Horta 3+ goals
21%
Sants 1+ goals
69%
Sants 2+ goals
33%
Sants 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Horta (draw refunded)
62%
Sants (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horta at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

Sants away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horta attack 1.46 + Sants defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.59

Sants attack 0.82 + Horta defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Horta scores more
47%
level
25%
Sants scores more
28%

Horta at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Horta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Horta 1 – 0 Sants

Horta beat Sants 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on December 1, 2019.

The match was played at Estade Feliu i Codina in Barcelona.