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Horta vs Sant Andreu — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Horta
Horta
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Sant Andreu
Sant Andreu
11/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 3Estade Feliu i Codina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Horta33%
×Draw25%
Sant Andreu42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horta
1.31
Sant Andreu
1.50

Sant Andreu creates 15% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 57 away

creates per match

Horta
1.46
Sant Andreu
1.47

allows per match

Horta
1.54
Sant Andreu
1.16

finishing

Horta+0.00on par
Sant Andreu+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horta ↓

Sant Andreu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Horta or draw
58%
Horta or Sant Andreu
75%
Draw or Sant Andreu
67%

Winning margin

Horta wins by 2+
14%
Sant Andreu wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Horta 1+ goals
73%
Horta 2+ goals
38%
Horta 3+ goals
14%
Sant Andreu 1+ goals
78%
Sant Andreu 2+ goals
44%
Sant Andreu 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Horta (draw refunded)
44%
Sant Andreu (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horta at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

Sant Andreu away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.16 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horta attack 1.46 + Sant Andreu defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.31

Sant Andreu attack 1.47 + Horta defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Horta scores more
33%
level
25%
Sant Andreu scores more
42%

Sant Andreu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sant Andreu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Horta 1–2 Sant Andreu

Sant Andreu beat Horta 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estade Feliu i Codina in Barcelona.