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Horta vs San Cristóbal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Horta
Horta
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
San Cristóbal
San Cristóbal
2/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 23Estade Feliu i Codina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Horta40%
×Draw27%
San Cristóbal33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horta
1.30
San Cristóbal
1.16

Horta creates 12% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 108 away

creates per match

Horta
1.46
San Cristóbal
0.78

allows per match

Horta
1.54
San Cristóbal
1.15

finishing

Horta+0.00on par
San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horta ↓

San Cristóbal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Horta or draw
67%
Horta or San Cristóbal
73%
Draw or San Cristóbal
60%

Winning margin

Horta wins by 2+
18%
San Cristóbal wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Horta 1+ goals
73%
Horta 2+ goals
37%
Horta 3+ goals
14%
San Cristóbal 1+ goals
69%
San Cristóbal 2+ goals
32%
San Cristóbal 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Horta (draw refunded)
55%
San Cristóbal (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horta at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

San Cristóbal away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.15 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horta attack 1.46 + San Cristóbal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.30

San Cristóbal attack 0.78 + Horta defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Horta scores more
40%
level
27%
San Cristóbal scores more
33%

Horta at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Horta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Horta vs San Cristóbal

San Cristóbal beat Horta 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estade Feliu i Codina in Barcelona.