Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Horta vs Reus — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Horta
Horta
CANC
00:00
Reus
Reus
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 38Estade Feliu i Codina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Horta70%
×Draw18%
Reus12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horta
2.23
Reus
0.77

Horta creates 190% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 18 away

creates per match

Horta
1.46
Reus
0.00

allows per match

Horta
1.54
Reus
3.00

finishing

Horta+0.00on par
Reus+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horta ↓

Reus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Horta or draw
88%
Horta or Reus
82%
Draw or Reus
30%

Winning margin

Horta wins by 2+
46%
Reus wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Horta 1+ goals
89%
Horta 2+ goals
65%
Horta 3+ goals
38%
Reus 1+ goals
54%
Reus 2+ goals
18%
Reus 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Horta (draw refunded)
86%
Reus (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horta at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

Reus away — creates 0.00, concedes 3.00 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horta attack 1.46 + Reus defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.23

Reus attack 0.00 + Horta defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Horta scores more
70%
level
18%
Reus scores more
12%

Horta at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Horta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Horta vs Reus — Match Preview

Horta face Reus on May 16, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Horta host Reus at Estade Feliu i Codina.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.