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Horta vs Girona II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Horta
Horta
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Girona II
Girona II
2/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 15Estade Feliu i Codina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Horta32%
×Draw26%
Girona II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horta
1.19
Girona II
1.39

Girona II creates 17% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 78 away

creates per match

Horta
1.46
Girona II
1.23

allows per match

Horta
1.54
Girona II
0.91

finishing

Horta+0.00on par
Girona II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horta ↓

Girona II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Horta or draw
59%
Horta or Girona II
74%
Draw or Girona II
68%

Winning margin

Horta wins by 2+
13%
Girona II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Horta 1+ goals
70%
Horta 2+ goals
33%
Horta 3+ goals
12%
Girona II 1+ goals
75%
Girona II 2+ goals
40%
Girona II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Horta (draw refunded)
44%
Girona II (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horta at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.54 · 28 matches

Girona II away — creates 1.23, concedes 0.91 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horta attack 1.46 + Girona II defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.19

Girona II attack 1.23 + Horta defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Horta scores more
32%
level
26%
Girona II scores more
41%

Girona II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Girona II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Horta 1–2 Girona II

Girona II beat Horta 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estade Feliu i Codina in Barcelona.