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Horriya vs Tishreen — Premier League 2019

Horriya
Horriya
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Tishreen
Tishreen
2/22/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Al-Hamadaniah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Horriya26%
×Draw28%
Tishreen47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horriya
0.93
Tishreen
1.36

Tishreen creates 46% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 80 away

creates per match

Horriya
1.00
Tishreen
1.18

allows per match

Horriya
1.55
Tishreen
0.86

finishing

Horriya+0.00on par
Tishreen+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horriya ↓

Tishreen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Horriya or draw
53%
Horriya or Tishreen
72%
Draw or Tishreen
74%

Winning margin

Horriya wins by 2+
9%
Tishreen wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Horriya 1+ goals
61%
Horriya 2+ goals
24%
Horriya 3+ goals
7%
Tishreen 1+ goals
74%
Tishreen 2+ goals
39%
Tishreen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Horriya (draw refunded)
35%
Tishreen (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horriya at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

Tishreen away — creates 1.18, concedes 0.86 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horriya attack 1.00 + Tishreen defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Tishreen attack 1.18 + Horriya defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Horriya scores more
26%
level
28%
Tishreen scores more
47%

Tishreen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Tishreen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Horriya 1–3 Tishreen

Tishreen beat Horriya 3-1 in Premier League on February 22, 2021.

The match was played at Al-Hamadaniah Stadium in Aleppo.