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Horriya vs Foutoua — Premier League 2019

Horriya
Horriya
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Foutoua
Foutoua
12/1/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Al-Hamadaniah Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Horriya31%
×Draw28%
Foutoua41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horriya
1.08
Foutoua
1.27

Foutoua creates 18% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 81 away

creates per match

Horriya
1.00
Foutoua
0.98

allows per match

Horriya
1.55
Foutoua
1.17

finishing

Horriya+0.00on par
Foutoua+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horriya ↓

Foutoua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Horriya or draw
59%
Horriya or Foutoua
72%
Draw or Foutoua
69%

Winning margin

Horriya wins by 2+
12%
Foutoua wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Horriya 1+ goals
66%
Horriya 2+ goals
29%
Horriya 3+ goals
10%
Foutoua 1+ goals
72%
Foutoua 2+ goals
36%
Foutoua 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Horriya (draw refunded)
44%
Foutoua (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horriya at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

Foutoua away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.17 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horriya attack 1.00 + Foutoua defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Foutoua attack 0.98 + Horriya defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Horriya scores more
31%
level
28%
Foutoua scores more
41%

Foutoua at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Foutoua will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Horriya vs Foutoua

Foutoua beat Horriya 1-0 in Premier League on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Al-Hamadaniah Stadium in Aleppo.