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Horriya vs Al Sahel — Premier League 2019

Horriya
Horriya
FT
4 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Al Sahel
Al Sahel
4/29/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 257 April Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Horriya46%
×Draw26%
Al Sahel28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horriya
1.48
Al Sahel
1.09

Horriya creates 36% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 24 away

creates per match

Horriya
1.00
Al Sahel
0.63

allows per match

Horriya
1.55
Al Sahel
1.96

finishing

Horriya+0.00on par
Al Sahel+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horriya ↓

Al Sahel →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Horriya or draw
72%
Horriya or Al Sahel
74%
Draw or Al Sahel
54%

Winning margin

Horriya wins by 2+
23%
Al Sahel wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Horriya 1+ goals
77%
Horriya 2+ goals
43%
Horriya 3+ goals
19%
Al Sahel 1+ goals
66%
Al Sahel 2+ goals
30%
Al Sahel 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Horriya (draw refunded)
62%
Al Sahel (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horriya at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

Al Sahel away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.96 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horriya attack 1.00 + Al Sahel defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.48

Al Sahel attack 0.63 + Horriya defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Horriya scores more
46%
level
26%
Al Sahel scores more
28%

Horriya at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Horriya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Horriya vs Al Sahel

Horriya beat Al Sahel 4-3 in Premier League on April 29, 2021.

The match was played at 7 April Stadium in Aleppo.