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Horriya vs Al Karama — Premier League 2019

Horriya
Horriya
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Al Karama
Al Karama
12/29/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 117 April Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Horriya27%
×Draw28%
Al Karama45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horriya
0.93
Al Karama
1.30

Al Karama creates 40% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 81 away

creates per match

Horriya
1.00
Al Karama
1.05

allows per match

Horriya
1.55
Al Karama
0.85

finishing

Horriya+0.00on par
Al Karama+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horriya ↓

Al Karama →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Horriya or draw
55%
Horriya or Al Karama
72%
Draw or Al Karama
73%

Winning margin

Horriya wins by 2+
9%
Al Karama wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Horriya 1+ goals
61%
Horriya 2+ goals
24%
Horriya 3+ goals
7%
Al Karama 1+ goals
73%
Al Karama 2+ goals
37%
Al Karama 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Horriya (draw refunded)
37%
Al Karama (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horriya at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

Al Karama away — creates 1.05, concedes 0.85 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horriya attack 1.00 + Al Karama defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.93

Al Karama attack 1.05 + Horriya defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Horriya scores more
27%
level
28%
Al Karama scores more
45%

Al Karama at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Al Karama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Horriya 2–0 Al Karama

Horriya beat Al Karama 2-0 in Premier League on December 29, 2023.

The match was played at 7 April Stadium in Aleppo.