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Horoya vs Stade Malien Bamako — CAF Champions League 2019

Horoya
Horoya
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Stade Malien Bamako
Stade Malien Bamako
10/24/2021CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · 2nd Preliminary RoundStade Général Lansana Conté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Horoya46%
×Draw30%
Stade Malien Bamako25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horoya
1.22
Stade Malien Bamako
0.81

Horoya creates 51% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 11 away

creates per match

Horoya
1.35
Stade Malien Bamako
0.91

allows per match

Horoya
0.71
Stade Malien Bamako
1.09

finishing

Horoya+0.00on par
Stade Malien Bamako+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horoya ↓

Stade Malien Bamako →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Horoya or draw
75%
Horoya or Stade Malien Bamako
70%
Draw or Stade Malien Bamako
54%

Winning margin

Horoya wins by 2+
20%
Stade Malien Bamako wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Horoya 1+ goals
70%
Horoya 2+ goals
34%
Horoya 3+ goals
12%
Stade Malien Bamako 1+ goals
56%
Stade Malien Bamako 2+ goals
19%
Stade Malien Bamako 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Horoya (draw refunded)
65%
Stade Malien Bamako (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horoya at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Stade Malien Bamako away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horoya attack 1.35 + Stade Malien Bamako defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.22

Stade Malien Bamako attack 0.91 + Horoya defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Horoya scores more
46%
level
30%
Stade Malien Bamako scores more
25%

Horoya at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Horoya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Horoya vs Stade Malien Bamako

Horoya beat Stade Malien Bamako 2-1 in CAF Champions League on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Général Lansana Conté in Conakry.