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Horoya vs Petro de Luanda — CAF Champions League 2019

Horoya
Horoya
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Petro de Luanda
Petro de Luanda
2/13/2021CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group C - 1Stade du 28 Septembre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Horoya44%
×Draw29%
Petro de Luanda27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horoya
1.25
Petro de Luanda
0.90

Horoya creates 39% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 33 away

creates per match

Horoya
1.35
Petro de Luanda
1.09

allows per match

Horoya
0.71
Petro de Luanda
1.15

finishing

Horoya+0.00on par
Petro de Luanda+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horoya ↓

Petro de Luanda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Horoya or draw
73%
Horoya or Petro de Luanda
71%
Draw or Petro de Luanda
56%

Winning margin

Horoya wins by 2+
20%
Petro de Luanda wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Horoya 1+ goals
71%
Horoya 2+ goals
36%
Horoya 3+ goals
13%
Petro de Luanda 1+ goals
59%
Petro de Luanda 2+ goals
23%
Petro de Luanda 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Horoya (draw refunded)
62%
Petro de Luanda (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horoya at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Petro de Luanda away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.15 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horoya attack 1.35 + Petro de Luanda defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Petro de Luanda attack 1.09 + Horoya defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Horoya scores more
44%
level
29%
Petro de Luanda scores more
27%

Horoya at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Horoya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Horoya vs Petro de Luanda

Horoya beat Petro de Luanda 2-0 in CAF Champions League on February 13, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du 28 Septembre in Conakry.