Hořovicko 1–1 Český lev - Union Beroun

Hořovicko

Pens

1 – 1

Český lev - Union Beroun

10/19/2019

4. liga - Divizie A · Round 11Mestský stadion (Hořovice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Hořovicko61%

×Draw20%

Český lev - Union Beroun19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HořovickoExpected goals in this matchČeský lev - Union Beroun

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.20

1.16

Hořovicko

2.20

Český lev - Union Beroun

1.16

Hořovicko creates 90% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 25 away

1.40

creates per match

0.76

1.55

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Hořovicko

1.40

Český lev - Union Beroun

0.76

allows per match

Hořovicko

1.55

Český lev - Union Beroun

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hořovicko+0.00on par

Český lev - Union Beroun+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hořovicko ↓

Český lev - Union Beroun →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Hořovicko or draw

81%

Hořovicko or Český lev - Union Beroun

80%

Draw or Český lev - Union Beroun

39%

Winning margin

Hořovicko wins by 2+

38%

Český lev - Union Beroun wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Hořovicko 1+ goals

89%

Hořovicko 2+ goals

64%

Hořovicko 3+ goals

37%

Český lev - Union Beroun 1+ goals

69%

Český lev - Union Beroun 2+ goals

32%

Český lev - Union Beroun 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Hořovicko (draw refunded)

76%

Český lev - Union Beroun (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hořovicko at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.55 · 85 matches

Český lev - Union Beroun away — creates 0.76, concedes 3.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hořovicko attack 1.40 + Český lev - Union Beroun defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.20

Český lev - Union Beroun attack 0.76 + Hořovicko defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Hořovicko scores more

61%

level

20%

Český lev - Union Beroun scores more

19%

Hořovicko at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Hořovicko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff