Cajazeiras 3–1 ABPN Canaã: Result & Stats

Cajazeiras

FT

3 – 1

ABPN Canaã

3/16/2019

Baiano - 2 · Round 2Estádio 25 de Junho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cajazeiras58%

×Draw24%

ABPN Canaã18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CajazeirasExpected goals in this matchABPN Canaã

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.82

Cajazeiras

1.71

ABPN Canaã

0.82

Cajazeiras creates 109% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.60

creates per match

0.64

1.00

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Cajazeiras

1.60

ABPN Canaã

0.64

allows per match

Cajazeiras

1.00

ABPN Canaã

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cajazeiras+0.00on par

ABPN Canaã+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cajazeiras ↓

ABPN Canaã →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cajazeiras or draw

82%

Cajazeiras or ABPN Canaã

76%

Draw or ABPN Canaã

42%

Winning margin

Cajazeiras wins by 2+

33%

ABPN Canaã wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Cajazeiras 1+ goals

82%

Cajazeiras 2+ goals

51%

Cajazeiras 3+ goals

24%

ABPN Canaã 1+ goals

56%

ABPN Canaã 2+ goals

20%

ABPN Canaã 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cajazeiras (draw refunded)

77%

ABPN Canaã (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cajazeiras at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

ABPN Canaã away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cajazeiras attack 1.60 + ABPN Canaã defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.71

ABPN Canaã attack 0.64 + Cajazeiras defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cajazeiras scores more

58%

level

24%

ABPN Canaã scores more

18%

Cajazeiras at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cajazeiras will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff