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Horní Heršpice W vs Slovácko W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Horní Heršpice W
Horní Heršpice W
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Slovácko W
Slovácko W
10/19/20251. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Horní Heršpice W23%
×Draw20%
Slovácko W57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horní Heršpice W
1.39
Slovácko W
2.26

Slovácko W creates 63% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 60 away

creates per match

Horní Heršpice W
1.20
Slovácko W
1.90

allows per match

Horní Heršpice W
2.62
Slovácko W
1.57

finishing

Horní Heršpice W+0.00on par
Slovácko W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horní Heršpice W ↓

Slovácko W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Horní Heršpice W or draw
43%
Horní Heršpice W or Slovácko W
80%
Draw or Slovácko W
77%

Winning margin

Horní Heršpice W wins by 2+
10%
Slovácko W wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Horní Heršpice W 1+ goals
75%
Horní Heršpice W 2+ goals
40%
Horní Heršpice W 3+ goals
16%
Slovácko W 1+ goals
89%
Slovácko W 2+ goals
66%
Slovácko W 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Horní Heršpice W (draw refunded)
29%
Slovácko W (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horní Heršpice W at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.62 · 60 matches

Slovácko W away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.57 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horní Heršpice W attack 1.20 + Slovácko W defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.39

Slovácko W attack 1.90 + Horní Heršpice W defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Horní Heršpice W scores more
23%
level
20%
Slovácko W scores more
57%

Slovácko W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Slovácko W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Women: Horní Heršpice W 1–2 Slovácko W

Slovácko W beat Horní Heršpice W 2-1 in 1. Liga Women on October 19, 2025.