Horní Heršpice W 3–2 Pardubice W: Result & Stats

Horní Heršpice W

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Pardubice W

V. Sladka 57'

M. Hlavacova 10', 9'

V. Hylova 85' (pen)

T. Fialova 82'

9/30/2023

1. Liga Women · Round 5Hřiště Lokomotiva Horní Heršpice-Brno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Horní Heršpice W53%

×Draw19%

Pardubice W28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Horní Heršpice WExpected goals in this matchPardubice W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.67

1.93

Horní Heršpice W

2.67

Pardubice W

1.93

Horní Heršpice W creates 38% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 40 away

1.20

creates per match

1.23

2.62

allows per match

4.13

creates per match

Horní Heršpice W

1.20

Pardubice W

1.23

allows per match

Horní Heršpice W

2.62

Pardubice W

4.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Horní Heršpice W+0.00on par

Pardubice W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horní Heršpice W ↓

Pardubice W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–25%

1–33%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–24%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

67%33%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Horní Heršpice W or draw

72%

Horní Heršpice W or Pardubice W

81%

Draw or Pardubice W

47%

Winning margin

Horní Heršpice W wins by 2+

34%

Pardubice W wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Horní Heršpice W 1+ goals

93%

Horní Heršpice W 2+ goals

74%

Horní Heršpice W 3+ goals

49%

Pardubice W 1+ goals

85%

Pardubice W 2+ goals

57%

Pardubice W 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Horní Heršpice W (draw refunded)

66%

Pardubice W (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horní Heršpice W at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.62 · 60 matches

Pardubice W away — creates 1.23, concedes 4.13 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horní Heršpice W attack 1.20 + Pardubice W defence 4.13 → ÷2 → 2.67

Pardubice W attack 1.23 + Horní Heršpice W defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Horní Heršpice W scores more

53%

level

19%

Pardubice W scores more

28%

Horní Heršpice W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Horní Heršpice W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

M. Hlavacova

10'

M. Hlavacova

29'

K. Pavlickova

45'

P. Hrobska

46'

V. Hylova← V. Hylova

46'

V. Sladka← V. Sladka

57'

V. Sladka

60'

V. Janeckova← V. Janeckova

72'

V. Mikundova← V. Mikundova

75'

N. Velebova← N. Velebova

75'

V. Nemcova← V. Nemcova

75'

A. Urbancova← A. Urbancova

79'

M. Nechvilova← M. Nechvilova

79'

M. Friedrichova← M. Friedrichova

82'

T. Fialova

85'

V. HylovaPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff