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Horní Heršpice W vs FC Praha W — 1. Liga Women 2020

Horní Heršpice W
Horní Heršpice W
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
FC Praha W
FC Praha W
3/28/20261. Liga Women1. Liga Women · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Horní Heršpice W56%
×Draw18%
FC Praha W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horní Heršpice W
2.73
FC Praha W
1.86

Horní Heršpice W creates 47% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 20 away

creates per match

Horní Heršpice W
1.20
FC Praha W
1.10

allows per match

Horní Heršpice W
2.62
FC Praha W
4.25

finishing

Horní Heršpice W+0.00on par
FC Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horní Heršpice W ↓

FC Praha W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Horní Heršpice W or draw
74%
Horní Heršpice W or FC Praha W
82%
Draw or FC Praha W
44%

Winning margin

Horní Heršpice W wins by 2+
36%
FC Praha W wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Horní Heršpice W 1+ goals
93%
Horní Heršpice W 2+ goals
75%
Horní Heršpice W 3+ goals
50%
FC Praha W 1+ goals
84%
FC Praha W 2+ goals
55%
FC Praha W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Horní Heršpice W (draw refunded)
68%
FC Praha W (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horní Heršpice W at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.62 · 60 matches

FC Praha W away — creates 1.10, concedes 4.25 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horní Heršpice W attack 1.20 + FC Praha W defence 4.25 → ÷2 → 2.73

FC Praha W attack 1.10 + Horní Heršpice W defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Horní Heršpice W scores more
56%
level
18%
FC Praha W scores more
26%

Horní Heršpice W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Horní Heršpice W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Women: Horní Heršpice W 1–0 FC Praha W

Horní Heršpice W beat FC Praha W 1-0 in 1. Liga Women on March 28, 2026.