Horní Heršpice W 2–1 Dukla Praha W: Result & Stats

Horní Heršpice W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dukla Praha W

9/24/2022

1. Liga Women · Round 5Hřiště Lokomotiva Horní Heršpice-Brno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Horní Heršpice W57%

×Draw19%

Dukla Praha W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Horní Heršpice WExpected goals in this matchDukla Praha W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.58

Horní Heršpice W

2.46

Dukla Praha W

1.58

Horní Heršpice W creates 56% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

1.20

creates per match

0.53

2.62

allows per match

3.73

creates per match

Horní Heršpice W

1.20

Dukla Praha W

0.53

allows per match

Horní Heršpice W

2.62

Dukla Praha W

3.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Horní Heršpice W+0.00on par

Dukla Praha W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horní Heršpice W ↓

Dukla Praha W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Horní Heršpice W or draw

76%

Horní Heršpice W or Dukla Praha W

81%

Draw or Dukla Praha W

43%

Winning margin

Horní Heršpice W wins by 2+

36%

Dukla Praha W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Horní Heršpice W 1+ goals

91%

Horní Heršpice W 2+ goals

70%

Horní Heršpice W 3+ goals

44%

Dukla Praha W 1+ goals

79%

Dukla Praha W 2+ goals

47%

Dukla Praha W 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Horní Heršpice W (draw refunded)

70%

Dukla Praha W (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horní Heršpice W at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.62 · 60 matches

Dukla Praha W away — creates 0.53, concedes 3.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horní Heršpice W attack 1.20 + Dukla Praha W defence 3.73 → ÷2 → 2.46

Dukla Praha W attack 0.53 + Horní Heršpice W defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Horní Heršpice W scores more

57%

level

19%

Dukla Praha W scores more

24%

Horní Heršpice W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Horní Heršpice W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff