Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Horní Bříza vs Otava Katovice — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Horní Bříza
Horní Bříza
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Otava Katovice
Otava Katovice
4/15/20234. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 22Fotbalově Hřiště Horní Bříza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Horní Bříza32%
×Draw22%
Otava Katovice46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horní Bříza
1.58
Otava Katovice
1.94

Otava Katovice creates 23% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 56 away

creates per match

Horní Bříza
0.87
Otava Katovice
1.34

allows per match

Horní Bříza
2.53
Otava Katovice
2.30

finishing

Horní Bříza+0.00on par
Otava Katovice+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horní Bříza ↓

Otava Katovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Horní Bříza or draw
54%
Horní Bříza or Otava Katovice
78%
Draw or Otava Katovice
68%

Winning margin

Horní Bříza wins by 2+
15%
Otava Katovice wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Horní Bříza 1+ goals
79%
Horní Bříza 2+ goals
47%
Horní Bříza 3+ goals
21%
Otava Katovice 1+ goals
86%
Otava Katovice 2+ goals
58%
Otava Katovice 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Horní Bříza (draw refunded)
41%
Otava Katovice (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horní Bříza at home — creates 0.87, concedes 2.53 · 15 matches

Otava Katovice away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.30 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horní Bříza attack 0.87 + Otava Katovice defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 1.58

Otava Katovice attack 1.34 + Horní Bříza defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Horní Bříza scores more
32%
level
22%
Otava Katovice scores more
46%

Otava Katovice at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Otava Katovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie A: Horní Bříza 2–1 Otava Katovice

Horní Bříza beat Otava Katovice 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie A on April 15, 2023.

The match was played at Fotbalově Hřiště Horní Bříza in Horní Bříza.