AC Oulu 3–1 HIFK Helsinki: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

AC Oulu

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

HIFK Helsinki

5/9/2018

Ykkönen · Round 2Raatin stadion (Oulu)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

AC Oulu42%

×Draw26%

HIFK Helsinki31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC OuluExpected goals in this matchHIFK Helsinki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.17

AC Oulu

1.40

HIFK Helsinki

1.17

AC Oulu creates 20% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 27 away

1.49

creates per match

1.48

0.85

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

AC Oulu

1.49

HIFK Helsinki

1.48

allows per match

AC Oulu

0.85

HIFK Helsinki

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Oulu+0.00on par

HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Oulu ↓

HIFK Helsinki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

AC Oulu or draw

69%

AC Oulu or HIFK Helsinki

74%

Draw or HIFK Helsinki

58%

Winning margin

AC Oulu wins by 2+

20%

HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AC Oulu 1+ goals

75%

AC Oulu 2+ goals

41%

AC Oulu 3+ goals

17%

HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals

69%

HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals

33%

HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AC Oulu (draw refunded)

57%

HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Oulu at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.85 · 39 matches

HIFK Helsinki away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Oulu attack 1.49 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.48 + AC Oulu defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AC Oulu scores more

42%

level

26%

HIFK Helsinki scores more

31%

AC Oulu at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AC Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff