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AC Oulu vs HIFK Helsinki — Veikkausliiga 2018

AC Oulu
AC Oulu
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
HIFK Helsinki
HIFK Helsinki
9/18/2022VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Relegation Round - 1Raatin stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

AC Oulu41%
×Draw26%
HIFK Helsinki33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Oulu
1.41
HIFK Helsinki
1.22

AC Oulu creates 16% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 52 away

creates per match

AC Oulu
1.26
HIFK Helsinki
1.08

allows per match

AC Oulu
1.36
HIFK Helsinki
1.56

finishing

AC Oulu+0.00on par
HIFK Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Oulu ↓

HIFK Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AC Oulu or draw
67%
AC Oulu or HIFK Helsinki
74%
Draw or HIFK Helsinki
59%

Winning margin

AC Oulu wins by 2+
20%
HIFK Helsinki wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AC Oulu 1+ goals
76%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
41%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
17%
HIFK Helsinki 1+ goals
70%
HIFK Helsinki 2+ goals
34%
HIFK Helsinki 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AC Oulu (draw refunded)
56%
HIFK Helsinki (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Oulu at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

HIFK Helsinki away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Oulu attack 1.26 + HIFK Helsinki defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.41

HIFK Helsinki attack 1.08 + AC Oulu defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AC Oulu scores more
41%
level
26%
HIFK Helsinki scores more
33%

AC Oulu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AC Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Veikkausliiga: AC Oulu 4–1 HIFK Helsinki

AC Oulu beat HIFK Helsinki 4-1 in Veikkausliiga on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Raatin stadion in Oulu.