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Klubi-04 vs AC Kajaani — Ykkönen 2018

Klubi-04
Klubi-04
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 2
AC Kajaani
AC Kajaani
6/2/2018YkkönenYkkönen · Round 4Telia 5G -areena (Helsinki)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Klubi-0450%
×Draw21%
AC Kajaani29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Klubi-04
2.09
AC Kajaani
1.54

Klubi-04 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 39 away

creates per match

Klubi-04
2.00
AC Kajaani
1.64

allows per match

Klubi-04
1.45
AC Kajaani
2.18

finishing

Klubi-04+0.00on par
AC Kajaani+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klubi-04 ↓

AC Kajaani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Klubi-04 or draw
71%
Klubi-04 or AC Kajaani
79%
Draw or AC Kajaani
50%

Winning margin

Klubi-04 wins by 2+
29%
AC Kajaani wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Klubi-04 1+ goals
88%
Klubi-04 2+ goals
62%
Klubi-04 3+ goals
34%
AC Kajaani 1+ goals
79%
AC Kajaani 2+ goals
45%
AC Kajaani 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Klubi-04 (draw refunded)
64%
AC Kajaani (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klubi-04 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.45 · 40 matches

AC Kajaani away — creates 1.64, concedes 2.18 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klubi-04 attack 2.00 + AC Kajaani defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.09

AC Kajaani attack 1.64 + Klubi-04 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Klubi-04 scores more
50%
level
21%
AC Kajaani scores more
29%

Klubi-04 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Klubi-04 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: Klubi-04 1–5 AC Kajaani

AC Kajaani beat Klubi-04 5-1 in Ykkönen on June 2, 2018.

The match was played at Telia 5G -areena (Helsinki).