Hornau 0–0 Bayern Alzenau: Result & Stats

Hornau

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bayern Alzenau

10/13/2024

Oberliga - Hessen · Hessen - 15Kunstrasenplatz Kelkheim-Hornau

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Hornau28%

×Draw20%

Bayern Alzenau52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HornauExpected goals in this matchBayern Alzenau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

2.33

Hornau

1.69

Bayern Alzenau

2.33

Bayern Alzenau creates 38% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 70 away

1.68

creates per match

2.03

2.63

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Hornau

1.68

Bayern Alzenau

2.03

allows per match

Hornau

2.63

Bayern Alzenau

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hornau+0.00on par

Bayern Alzenau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hornau ↓

Bayern Alzenau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Hornau or draw

48%

Hornau or Bayern Alzenau

80%

Draw or Bayern Alzenau

72%

Winning margin

Hornau wins by 2+

13%

Bayern Alzenau wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Hornau 1+ goals

82%

Hornau 2+ goals

50%

Hornau 3+ goals

24%

Bayern Alzenau 1+ goals

90%

Bayern Alzenau 2+ goals

67%

Bayern Alzenau 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Hornau (draw refunded)

35%

Bayern Alzenau (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hornau at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.63 · 19 matches

Bayern Alzenau away — creates 2.03, concedes 1.71 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hornau attack 1.68 + Bayern Alzenau defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.69

Bayern Alzenau attack 2.03 + Hornau defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Hornau scores more

28%

level

20%

Bayern Alzenau scores more

52%

Bayern Alzenau at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Bayern Alzenau will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff