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Horn W vs Wacker Innsbruck W — Frauenliga 2019

Horn W
Horn W
FT
2 – 1
Wacker Innsbruck W
Wacker Innsbruck W
9/12/2020FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 2SV Horn Platz III

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Horn W52%
×Draw19%
Wacker Innsbruck W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horn W
2.53
Wacker Innsbruck W
1.86

Horn W creates 36% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 41 away

creates per match

Horn W
0.86
Wacker Innsbruck W
0.93

allows per match

Horn W
2.79
Wacker Innsbruck W
4.20

finishing

Horn W+0.00on par
Wacker Innsbruck W+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

78%Yes
  • Yes78
  • No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horn W ↓

Wacker Innsbruck W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–33%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Horn W or draw
71%
Horn W or Wacker Innsbruck W
81%
Draw or Wacker Innsbruck W
48%

Winning margin

Horn W wins by 2+
33%
Wacker Innsbruck W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Horn W 1+ goals
92%
Horn W 2+ goals
71%
Horn W 3+ goals
46%
Wacker Innsbruck W 1+ goals
84%
Wacker Innsbruck W 2+ goals
55%
Wacker Innsbruck W 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Horn W (draw refunded)
65%
Wacker Innsbruck W (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
72%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horn W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.79 · 14 matches

Wacker Innsbruck W away — creates 0.93, concedes 4.20 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horn W attack 0.86 + Wacker Innsbruck W defence 4.20 → ÷2 → 2.53

Wacker Innsbruck W attack 0.93 + Horn W defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Horn W scores more
52%
level
19%
Wacker Innsbruck W scores more
29%

Horn W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Horn W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Horn W vs Wacker Innsbruck W

Horn W beat Wacker Innsbruck W 2-1 in Frauenliga on September 12, 2020.

The match was played at SV Horn Platz III in Horn.