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Horn W vs Bergheim W — Frauenliga 2019

Horn W
Horn W
FT
0 – 5
Bergheim W
Bergheim W
10/3/2020FrauenligaFrauenliga · Round 4SV Horn Platz III

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Horn W37%
×Draw21%
Bergheim W42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horn W
1.84
Bergheim W
1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 52 away

creates per match

Horn W
0.86
Bergheim W
1.13

allows per match

Horn W
2.79
Bergheim W
2.83

finishing

Horn W+0.00on par
Bergheim W+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horn W ↓

Bergheim W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Horn W or draw
58%
Horn W or Bergheim W
79%
Draw or Bergheim W
63%

Winning margin

Horn W wins by 2+
19%
Bergheim W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Horn W 1+ goals
84%
Horn W 2+ goals
55%
Horn W 3+ goals
28%
Bergheim W 1+ goals
86%
Bergheim W 2+ goals
58%
Bergheim W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Horn W (draw refunded)
47%
Bergheim W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horn W at home — creates 0.86, concedes 2.79 · 14 matches

Bergheim W away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.83 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horn W attack 0.86 + Bergheim W defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 1.84

Bergheim W attack 1.13 + Horn W defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Horn W scores more
37%
level
21%
Bergheim W scores more
42%

Bergheim W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bergheim W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Frauenliga: Horn W 0–5 Bergheim W

Bergheim W beat Horn W 5-0 in Frauenliga on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at SV Horn Platz III in Horn.