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Horky nad Jizerou vs Polaban Nymburk — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Horky nad Jizerou
Horky nad Jizerou
CANC
15:00
Polaban Nymburk
Polaban Nymburk
5/1/20214. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 14UMT 9.ŽŠ Pastelka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Horky nad Jizerou70%
×Draw17%
Polaban Nymburk13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horky nad Jizerou
2.48
Polaban Nymburk
0.98

Horky nad Jizerou creates 153% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 12 away

creates per match

Horky nad Jizerou
2.04
Polaban Nymburk
0.33

allows per match

Horky nad Jizerou
1.64
Polaban Nymburk
2.92

finishing

Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par
Polaban Nymburk+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horky nad Jizerou ↓

Polaban Nymburk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Horky nad Jizerou or draw
87%
Horky nad Jizerou or Polaban Nymburk
83%
Draw or Polaban Nymburk
30%

Winning margin

Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
47%
Polaban Nymburk wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
92%
Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
70%
Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
44%
Polaban Nymburk 1+ goals
62%
Polaban Nymburk 2+ goals
26%
Polaban Nymburk 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
84%
Polaban Nymburk (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horky nad Jizerou at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

Polaban Nymburk away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.92 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horky nad Jizerou attack 2.04 + Polaban Nymburk defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.48

Polaban Nymburk attack 0.33 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Horky nad Jizerou scores more
70%
level
17%
Polaban Nymburk scores more
13%

Horky nad Jizerou at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Horky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Horky nad Jizerou face Polaban Nymburk (4. liga - Divizie C)

4. liga - Divizie C returns with Horky nad Jizerou hosting Polaban Nymburk. Match starts May 1, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Horky nad Jizerou host Polaban Nymburk at UMT 9.ŽŠ Pastelka.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.