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Horky nad Jizerou vs Ostrá — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Horky nad Jizerou
Horky nad Jizerou
FT
1 – 0
Ostrá
Ostrá
8/17/20194. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 2Hřiště FC Horky (Horky nad Jizerou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Horky nad Jizerou43%
×Draw23%
Ostrá34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horky nad Jizerou
1.77
Ostrá
1.57

Horky nad Jizerou creates 13% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 6 away

creates per match

Horky nad Jizerou
2.04
Ostrá
1.50

allows per match

Horky nad Jizerou
1.64
Ostrá
1.50

finishing

Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par
Ostrá+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horky nad Jizerou ↓

Ostrá →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Horky nad Jizerou or draw
66%
Horky nad Jizerou or Ostrá
77%
Draw or Ostrá
57%

Winning margin

Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
23%
Ostrá wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
83%
Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
53%
Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
26%
Ostrá 1+ goals
79%
Ostrá 2+ goals
46%
Ostrá 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
55%
Ostrá (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horky nad Jizerou at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

Ostrá away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horky nad Jizerou attack 2.04 + Ostrá defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.77

Ostrá attack 1.50 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Horky nad Jizerou scores more
43%
level
23%
Ostrá scores more
34%

Horky nad Jizerou at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Horky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Horky nad Jizerou 1 – 0 Ostrá

Horky nad Jizerou beat Ostrá 1-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on August 17, 2019.

The match was played at Hřiště FC Horky (Horky nad Jizerou).