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Horky nad Jizerou vs Náchod — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Horky nad Jizerou
Horky nad Jizerou
PST
14:00
Náchod
Náchod
3/21/20204. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Round 18Hrište FC Horky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Horky nad Jizerou50%
×Draw22%
Náchod28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horky nad Jizerou
2.01
Náchod
1.45

Horky nad Jizerou creates 39% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 54 away

creates per match

Horky nad Jizerou
2.04
Náchod
1.26

allows per match

Horky nad Jizerou
1.64
Náchod
1.98

finishing

Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par
Náchod+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horky nad Jizerou ↓

Náchod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Horky nad Jizerou or draw
72%
Horky nad Jizerou or Náchod
78%
Draw or Náchod
50%

Winning margin

Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
29%
Náchod wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
87%
Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
59%
Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
32%
Náchod 1+ goals
77%
Náchod 2+ goals
42%
Náchod 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
64%
Náchod (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horky nad Jizerou at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

Náchod away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.98 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horky nad Jizerou attack 2.04 + Náchod defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.01

Náchod attack 1.26 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Horky nad Jizerou scores more
50%
level
22%
Náchod scores more
28%

Horky nad Jizerou at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Horky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Horky nad Jizerou vs Náchod — Match Preview

Horky nad Jizerou face Náchod on March 21, 2020 in this 4. liga - Divizie C fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Horky nad Jizerou host Náchod at Hrište FC Horky.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.