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Horky nad Jizerou vs Dvůr Králové — 4. liga - Divizie C 2019

Horky nad Jizerou
Horky nad Jizerou
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dvůr Králové
Dvůr Králové
3/12/20224. liga - Divizie C4. liga - Divizie C · Division C - 16Brandýs nad Labem UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Horky nad Jizerou55%
×Draw21%
Dvůr Králové24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horky nad Jizerou
2.16
Dvůr Králové
1.37

Horky nad Jizerou creates 58% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 40 away

creates per match

Horky nad Jizerou
2.04
Dvůr Králové
1.10

allows per match

Horky nad Jizerou
1.64
Dvůr Králové
2.27

finishing

Horky nad Jizerou+0.00on par
Dvůr Králové+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horky nad Jizerou ↓

Dvůr Králové →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Horky nad Jizerou or draw
76%
Horky nad Jizerou or Dvůr Králové
79%
Draw or Dvůr Králové
45%

Winning margin

Horky nad Jizerou wins by 2+
33%
Dvůr Králové wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Horky nad Jizerou 1+ goals
88%
Horky nad Jizerou 2+ goals
63%
Horky nad Jizerou 3+ goals
36%
Dvůr Králové 1+ goals
75%
Dvůr Králové 2+ goals
40%
Dvůr Králové 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Horky nad Jizerou (draw refunded)
70%
Dvůr Králové (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horky nad Jizerou at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.64 · 25 matches

Dvůr Králové away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horky nad Jizerou attack 2.04 + Dvůr Králové defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.16

Dvůr Králové attack 1.10 + Horky nad Jizerou defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Horky nad Jizerou scores more
55%
level
21%
Dvůr Králové scores more
24%

Horky nad Jizerou at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Horky nad Jizerou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie C: Horky nad Jizerou 0–0 Dvůr Králové

Horky nad Jizerou and Dvůr Králové drew 0-0 in 4. liga - Divizie C on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Brandýs nad Labem UMT in Brandýs nad Labem-Stará Boleslav.