Horizonte 0–0 Tirol/CEFAT: Result & Stats

Horizonte

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Tirol/CEFAT

2/4/2025

League #609 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Olímpico Horácio Domingos de Sousa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Horizonte38%

×Draw35%

Tirol/CEFAT27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HorizonteExpected goals in this matchTirol/CEFAT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.90

0.70

Horizonte

0.90

Tirol/CEFAT

0.70

Horizonte creates 29% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

0.40

creates per match

0.80

0.60

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Horizonte

0.40

Tirol/CEFAT

0.80

allows per match

Horizonte

0.60

Tirol/CEFAT

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Horizonte+0.00on par

Tirol/CEFAT+0.00on par

Total goals

Under78
Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horizonte ↓

Tirol/CEFAT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–020%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

80%20%1.5

48%52%2.5

22%78%3.5

8%92%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Horizonte or draw

73%

Horizonte or Tirol/CEFAT

65%

Draw or Tirol/CEFAT

62%

Winning margin

Horizonte wins by 2+

14%

Tirol/CEFAT wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Horizonte 1+ goals

59%

Horizonte 2+ goals

23%

Horizonte 3+ goals

6%

Tirol/CEFAT 1+ goals

50%

Tirol/CEFAT 2+ goals

16%

Tirol/CEFAT 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Horizonte (draw refunded)

59%

Tirol/CEFAT (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

17%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horizonte at home — creates 0.40, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Tirol/CEFAT away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horizonte attack 0.40 + Tirol/CEFAT defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.90

Tirol/CEFAT attack 0.80 + Horizonte defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Horizonte scores more

38%

level

35%

Tirol/CEFAT scores more

27%

Horizonte at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Horizonte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

Siloe

17'

Soares

22'

Jonh Wilquer

30'

Ze Augusto

74'

Davi← Tiago Cunha

74'

Edson Kapa← Dentinho

74'

Renan← Pio

74'

Wallyson← Siloé

77'

Henrique← Leo

77'

Paulinho← Goiaba

80'

81'

Claudivan← Caio Pedro

81'

Domingos← Sidin

Horizonte

Tirol/CEFAT

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Leandro Campos

74'▲Davi←▼Tiago Cunha

74'▲Edson Kapa←▼Dentinho

77'▲Henrique←▼Leo

81'▲Claudivan←▼Caio Pedro

Horizonte substitutes

DaviKapaHenriqueClaudivanWilgneOcaraLohanElionayMassilonPereiraFreitasRuan

Manager: Michel Lima

74'▲Renan←▼Pio

74'▲Wallyson←▼Siloé

77'▲Paulinho←▼Goiaba

81'▲Domingos←▼Sidin

Tirol/CEFAT substitutes

RenanWallysonPaulinhoDomingosBritoLucasAntônioJordanMendesGomesNeyBarra

League #609: Horizonte 0–0 Tirol/CEFAT

Horizonte and Tirol/CEFAT drew 0-0 in League #609 on February 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Olímpico Horácio Domingos de Sousa in Horizonte, Ceará.

Horizonte vs Tirol/CEFAT — League #609 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #609: Horizonte 0–0 Tirol/CEFAT