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Horitschon vs Marz — Landesliga - Burgenland 2019

Horitschon
Horitschon
FT
3 – 0
Marz
Marz
11/11/2023Landesliga - BurgenlandLandesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 15Sportplatz Horitschon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Horitschon54%
×Draw22%
Marz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horitschon
1.91
Marz
1.18

Horitschon creates 62% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 14 away

creates per match

Horitschon
1.89
Marz
0.71

allows per match

Horitschon
1.65
Marz
1.93

finishing

Horitschon+0.00on par
Marz+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horitschon ↓

Marz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Horitschon or draw
77%
Horitschon or Marz
78%
Draw or Marz
46%

Winning margin

Horitschon wins by 2+
31%
Marz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Horitschon 1+ goals
85%
Horitschon 2+ goals
57%
Horitschon 3+ goals
30%
Marz 1+ goals
69%
Marz 2+ goals
33%
Marz 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Horitschon (draw refunded)
70%
Marz (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horitschon at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.65 · 84 matches

Marz away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.93 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horitschon attack 1.89 + Marz defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.91

Marz attack 0.71 + Horitschon defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Horitschon scores more
54%
level
22%
Marz scores more
23%

Horitschon at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Horitschon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Burgenland: Horitschon 3–0 Marz

Horitschon beat Marz 3-0 in Landesliga - Burgenland on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Sportplatz Horitschon in Horitschon.