Horitschon 0–0 Edelserpentin: Result & Stats

Horitschon

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Edelserpentin

10/11/2025

Landesliga - Burgenland · Burgenland - 10Sportplatz Horitschon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Horitschon49%

×Draw23%

Edelserpentin28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HoritschonExpected goals in this matchEdelserpentin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.38

Horitschon

1.88

Edelserpentin

1.38

Horitschon creates 36% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 44 away

1.89

creates per match

1.11

1.65

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Horitschon

1.89

Edelserpentin

1.11

allows per match

Horitschon

1.65

Edelserpentin

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Horitschon+0.00on par

Edelserpentin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horitschon ↓

Edelserpentin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Horitschon or draw

72%

Horitschon or Edelserpentin

77%

Draw or Edelserpentin

51%

Winning margin

Horitschon wins by 2+

27%

Edelserpentin wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Horitschon 1+ goals

85%

Horitschon 2+ goals

56%

Horitschon 3+ goals

29%

Edelserpentin 1+ goals

75%

Edelserpentin 2+ goals

40%

Edelserpentin 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Horitschon (draw refunded)

63%

Edelserpentin (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horitschon at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.65 · 84 matches

Edelserpentin away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.86 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horitschon attack 1.89 + Edelserpentin defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.88

Edelserpentin attack 1.11 + Horitschon defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Horitschon scores more

49%

level

23%

Edelserpentin scores more

28%

Horitschon at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Horitschon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff