Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hörbranz vs Bezau — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Hörbranz
Hörbranz
FT
4 – 1
Bezau
Bezau
7/23/2022Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 1Sportplatz Sandriesel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Hörbranz49%
×Draw21%
Bezau30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hörbranz
2.12
Bezau
1.65

Hörbranz creates 28% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 46 away

creates per match

Hörbranz
1.77
Bezau
1.30

allows per match

Hörbranz
2.00
Bezau
2.46

finishing

Hörbranz+0.00on par
Bezau+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hörbranz ↓

Bezau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Hörbranz or draw
70%
Hörbranz or Bezau
79%
Draw or Bezau
51%

Winning margin

Hörbranz wins by 2+
28%
Bezau wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hörbranz 1+ goals
88%
Hörbranz 2+ goals
62%
Hörbranz 3+ goals
35%
Bezau 1+ goals
81%
Bezau 2+ goals
49%
Bezau 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Hörbranz (draw refunded)
62%
Bezau (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hörbranz at home — creates 1.77, concedes 2.00 · 44 matches

Bezau away — creates 1.30, concedes 2.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hörbranz attack 1.77 + Bezau defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.12

Bezau attack 1.30 + Hörbranz defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Hörbranz scores more
49%
level
21%
Bezau scores more
30%

Hörbranz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Hörbranz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Hörbranz 4–1 Bezau

Hörbranz beat Bezau 4-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on July 23, 2022.

The match was played at Sportplatz Sandriesel in Gemeinde Hörbranz.